If we fought for sleeping for the last few weeks, that’s probably because of This main story Of March 25:
An unnamed major employer is a late supply of information about the united Kingdom’s income in the UK risks to distort the main official measure of growth in the country, raising doubts about data that leads monetary policy.
The intervening period recorded an increase in instability in the global market, no doubt about the insecurity of traders in connection with who would have disturbed mysterious business of the average week of earnings in the UK and what kind of effect on audits could they have:
Despite these Rucles, we have not seen much speculation on the sales side. Bruna Skarica from Morgan Stanley was one of the few to put her head above the parapet, writing last week:
It’s hard to think about a unique job that might meaningfully move numbers, forbidding maybe NHS England. If audits relate to NHS, they would appear in the public sector data and the entire economy.
Well, we have New Labor Market Load Loadand something of the answer.
And no, it’s not NHS England. Instead, it’s the main seller. Or an exceptionally A large repair company.
Ons, of course, was firmly inserted into the identity of this “one job” and refused to offer more details of FT Alphaville. Can the data offer a mark?
Transfer to ONS:
As noted in the previous newsletter, we worked, as an exception, at the opening of the revision of further in time than usual to allow the late and updated yields we received from one company. We have now concluded this work and, as part of this edition, we have revised estimates in October 2020. To improve the quality of our estimates. …
At the whole level of economics, audits are generally small and within the range we see during seasonal adjustment examinations. As expected, as estimates are broken down below the entire economy level, the audits become higher. The largest audits are noticed in the large, retail sector, hotels and restaurants and in the retail and retail industry, which justified the exceptional audits.
They add, channeling Morrissey::
Some periods see greater audits than others.
Nevertheless, ONS seems a little shy to show how acute these audits are. AND The section of today’s Awea release that covers adjustments Includes the entire view of the economy …
… The view of the private sector …
… And wholesale, retail, hotels and restaurants view …
… But he withdraws only to give us a chart for the most prized (and therefore juicy) level, instead supplies only the words:
The trade and repair industry showed the highest revision. The biggest audits were for periods between three months to November 2021 to May 2022, when the audits were between 1.5 and 3.4 percentage points, and recently from three months to July 2024 to September 2024, when they were about 2.1 percentage points.
In order to turn on our chart we had to go X04: Average additional weekly earnings analysisbudget table published with today’s edition. This budget table has special monthly awe for before and after the audit. Here’s what they look like (NB unlike other ladder above, these figures are not seasonally adapted):
It’s quite a big jump after we get down to this level. May 2024. She was particularly observed – retail and awe of awe that week were 28.7 percent higher than he had previously thought.
It seems that the gap, as you can speculate from the shape of the line above the pink line, is largely reduced to a one-off bonus: the Ons revisions set up retail and repair the awe £ 19 for more than a month, and attribute 17 pounds of that jump bonus:
So what do we know?
– One job
– Retail or repair
-The CARE SALE (Given that she has withdrawn the entire series)
– largelike a large series that move
– paid a significant bonus in May 2024.
And since we are a blog, we can speculate.
Last April, British supermarket, Tesco-one of the largest employers in the private sector in the UK- announced a bonus scheme of £ 70m for its 220,000 staff.
According to Post on Tesco PodredditaThis was in the form of “one-off payment 1.5% of acceptable earnings for staff of the SAT staff in British stores, CFCs, UFCs, CEC and distribution”, who landed in Tesc employees who can pay the package.
So if we had Bet, that would be Tesco. If you have a better assumption, let us know in the usual ways.